Big Ideas: Summary of Forces and Strategies

The Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) plans to use exploratory scenario planning when developing Destination 2050, its next long-range transportation plan. Exploratory scenario planning processes envision multiple possible futures (or scenarios) to assess how to best prepare for uncertainties while pursuing an overarching vision.1 MPO staff conducted the Informing the Big ideas Behind the MPO’s Scenario Planning Process project in 2021 to gather stakeholder input for scenario planning. During a series of virtual focus groups, participants discussed driving forces they expect to shape the future and strategies that could respond to these forces. More details about the Big Ideas discussions are available in the MPO’s ArcGIS StoryMap titled Big Ideas: Uncertainties, Possibilities, and Strategies for Greater Boston’s Transportation Future. MPO staff’s next step is to work with MPO members to process, refine, and add to the information focus group participants provided about driving forces and strategies. The tables in this document can serve as references as MPO staff and members undertake this next step. This work will help MPO staff create potential future scenarios that MPO members can prioritize for analysis.

Table 1 describes MPO staff’s synthesis of driving forces mentioned during the focus groups. Driving forces are outside of our direct control, such as changes in society, the environment, or the economy. These forces can lead to likely outcomes (certainties), or unpredictable outcomes (uncertainties).2 These forces are organized by major themes in the table. During the focus groups, participants also shared feedback about the relative importance of various forces in their view and how certain they were that these forces would have an impact. This information is also reflected in the table.

Table 1
Big Ideas Focus Group Feedback: Driving Forces

Theme	Force	Level of Importance and Certainty	Notes
Environment	Climate change (including sea level rise, precipitation, higher temperatures, and extreme weather)	Very important, very certain (expected increase in climate change and related effects)	Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.
Environment	Environmental policy action	Very important, mixed perspectives on certainty	null
Technology	Electric vehicle use	Very important, very uncertain	null
Technology	Autonomous vehicle technology	Important, uncertain	null
Technology	Autonomous vehicle use	Important, very uncertain	null
Technology	Autonomous vehicle policies	Very important, uncertain	null
Technology	Smartphone use for transportation access	Very important, very certain (expected use to continue)	null
Technology	Internet support for remote work and services	null	null
Technology	Data availability for transportation management	Important, uncertain	null
Technology	Micromobility use	Certain (expected increase in use)	null
Technology	Transportation technology for freight delivery	Uncertain	null
Technology	New and emerging transportation technologies	Uncertain	null
Technology	Equitable access to technology	Important	null
Demographics	Aging population	Very important, very certain (expected aging of population)	Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.
Demographics	Migration to Greater Boston	Important, certain (expected increase in migration)	null
Demographics	Demographic diversity	Certain (expected increase in diversity)	null
Demographics	Systemic racism	Very important, certain (expected systemic racism to continue)	null
Economy	Remote work activity	Important, uncertain	Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.
Economy	E-commerce activity	Important, very certain	null
Economy	Automation	null	null
Economy	Energy use by type (renewables or fossil fuels)	Important, mixed perspectives on certainty	null
Economy	Energy policy	Very important, certain (expected support for renewable energy)	null
Economy	Core regional economic sector activity	Important, uncertain	null
Economy	Income inequality	Important, certain (expected increase in income inequality)	Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.
Consumer Preferences	Preference for urban or suburban living*	Very important, uncertain	Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.
Consumer Preferences	Preference for owning personal vehicles	Uncertain
Consumer Preferences	Preference for local trips	null	null
Consumer Preferences	Preference for active transportation	Certain (increase in preference for using active transportation)	null
Consumer Preferences	Preference for using transit	Important, uncertain	null
Consumer Preferences	Concerns about public health or exposure risk	Very important, very uncertain	null
Housing and Land Use	Housing demand	Uncertain	null
Housing and Land Use	Housing production	Very important, very uncertain	null
Housing and Land Use	Housing affordability*	Important, certain (expected lack of affordable housing)	Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.
Housing and Land Use	Development density	Uncertain	null
Housing and Land Use	Displacement	Certain (expected displacement from development and investment)	null
Policymaking	Political/partisan conflict	Uncertain	null
Policymaking	Bureaucratic fragmentation across government agencies	null	null
Policymaking	Funding for transportation infrastructure Improvements*	Very important, very uncertain	Thoughts related to this force were frequently mentioned across the focus groups.
Policymaking	Focus on equity in policymaking	Certain (expected increase in policy action to address inequities)	null

Source: Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization.

Table 2 describes MPO staff’s summary of the range of strategies suggested by focus group participants to address future conditions. These strategies—which include investments, policies, and planning approaches—are generally organized by theme, although for some strategies multiple themes may apply. The table provides additional details for these strategies, where applicable.

Table 2
Big Ideas Focus Group Feedback: Suggested Strategies

Theme	Strategy	Details
Environment	Manage stormwater.	Establish blue spaces; manage storm drains and sewers; and reduce urban hardscaping.
Environment	Reclaim green space.	Use green space for agricultural production.
Environment	Provide shelter from heat and weather for bicyclists, pedestrians, and transit users.	null
Environment	Support community relocation from climate affected areas.	null
Environment	Move people using water transportation.	null
Environment	Promote use of hybrid and electric cars.	null
Environment	Electrify transit vehicles and infrastructure.	null
Environment	Incentivize use of solar panels and renewable energy.	null
Environment	Monitor air pollution.	null
Environment	Increase transit options in communities of color.	null
Environment	Support flexible transportation options, particularly buses.	Flexible options could be rerouted in response to flooding or sea level rise.
Environment	Develop contingency plans for extreme weather events.	null
Technology	Form partnerships with tech industry to prepare for new modes (for public agencies).	null
Technology	Provide subsidies for advanced technologies.	One example would be to subsidize e-bikes.
Technology	Regulate or limit autonomous vehicles, particularly personal autonomous vehicles.	null
Technology	Support autonomous technology applications for transit.	null
Technology	Provide better transit to reduce the proliferation of personal electric vehicles.	null
Technology	Use electrified micromobility to support last-mile service to transit.	null
Technology	Regulate transportation network companies (TNCs).	Examples include requiring TNCs to share data or use public apps.
Technology	Create regulations to manage personal data.	null
Demographics	Increase transportation options in communities (including accessible options).	This strategy also addresses consumer preference and housing and land use issues.
Demographics	Apply universal and human-centered design principles when building infrastructure.	null
Demographics	Measure efforts to support aging-in-place.	null
Demographics	Keep sidewalks clear in the winter for seniors and people with disabilities.	null
Economy	Make transit responsive to changing remote work patterns.	This may include reducing focus on commute trips while considering a broader array of trip types.
Economy	Involve service, gig economy, and low wage workers and other forgotten workers in transportation decisions.	null
Economy	Increase transit service to areas that need it for economic participation.	null
Economy	Invest in areas that foster equitable growth and help maintain the state’s competitive edge.	null
Consumer Preferences	Close gaps in bicycle networks.	null
Consumer Preferences	Provide bicycle amenities, such as parking, at transit stations.	These amenities support people riding bicycles to make last-mile connections to transit.
Consumer Preferences	Promote the value of public transit.	Transit should be considered a public good.
Consumer Preferences	Make transit safe, comfortable, reliable, frequent, and fast.	null
Consumer Preferences	Use promotions to attract people to transit services.	null
Consumer Preferences	Invest in public health measures to mitigate concerns that may keep people from riding transit.	null
Housing and Land Use	Provide affordable housing with accessible transit.	null
Housing and Land Use	Use inclusionary zoning to create more affordable housing.	null
Housing and Land Use	Implement transit-oriented development.	null
Housing and Land Use	Provide more transportation options in town centers.	null
Housing and Land Use	Mitigate gentrification and displacement pressures that may result from transportation-related investments.	null
Housing and Land Use	Create 15-minute communities.	In 15-minute communities, residents can access all their daily needs within a 15-minute walk from home.
Housing and Land Use	Ensure neighborhood walkability for people of all ages.	null
Housing and Land Use	Support last-mile connections to transit stations and urban centers.	Examples include municipal bus circulators and bicycle infrastructure. Consider the street network an extension of the transit network to support these connections.
Policymaking	Consider the full life-cycle effects of transportation investments.	Transportation investments can have effects for decades.
Policymaking	Collaborate with other planners across sectors.	Examples of other sectors include housing, energy, and land use.
Policymaking	Rethink where transit needs and demands are.	null
Policymaking	Consider how gender may affect trip making.	null
Policymaking	Make decisions proactively, without expecting remote work or electric vehicle access to resolve transportation problems.	null
Policymaking	Support experimentation, innovation, systematic thinking, flexibility, and transparency when preparing for the future.	null
Policymaking	Promote public awareness and gather support for better transportation policies.	null
Policymaking	Adjust transportation funding formulas to redirect funding from highways to transit.	null
Policymaking	Use corporate impact fees to pay for transit improvements.	null
Policymaking	Fund transit improvements using regional ballot initiatives or programs like the Transportation and Climate Initiative.	null
Policymaking	Support regional governance.	null
Policymaking	Develop long-term funding models that promote transit system sustainability.	null
Policymaking	Relieve the MBTA of debt from the Big Dig (Central Artery) project.	null
Policymaking	Explore public private partnerships to improve transit.	null
Policymaking	Make transit more affordable to riders.	Examples include expanding low-cost pass products for commuters, establishing low-income fares, and exploring opportunities for free fares.
Other Transit Strategies	Increase funding for microtransit and bus routes.	Some of these routes could be operated by private companies.
Other Transit Strategies	Focus on updating existing systems or expanding transit coverage rather than building new systems.	null
Other Transit Strategies	Use high-capacity buses to provide support safe, fast, and reliable service.	null
Other Transit Strategies	Continue to develop dedicated bus lanes.	null
Other Transit Strategies	Continue to implement transit-signal-priority infrastructure in priority corridors.	null
Other Transit Strategies	Establish more through-connectivity in the bus system.	null
Other Transit Strategies	Support easier connections between buses and other modes.	null
Other Transit Strategies	Break down boundaries between regional transit authorities to improve connections.	null
Other Transit Strategies	Develop bus systems that are sensitive to changing topographies and amenities in the region.	null
Other Transit Strategies	Maintain ongoing dialogue with communities that depend on transit.	These relationships may help restore riders’ faith in the system after service problems happen.

MBTA = Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority.

Source: Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization.

1 Jeremy Stapleton, How to Use Exploratory Scenario Planning: Navigating an Uncertain Future (August 2020), page 8, accessed October 14, 2021. https://www.lincolninst.edu/publications/policy-focus-reports/how-use-exploratory-scenario-planning-xsp.

2 Diana Scearce and Katherine Fulton, What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits, (Global Business Network 2004), page 27, accessed October 14, 2021. https://community-wealth.org/content/what-if-art-scenario-thinking-nonprofits.